Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
In this article we will explore the theme of Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election, a topic that has generated great interest in contemporary society. Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election has been the subject of debate and analysis in various areas, from culture and politics to science and technology. This person/topic/date has captured the attention of millions of people around the world, generating interest that transcends geographic and cultural boundaries. Along these lines, we will examine different approaches and perspectives on Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election, with the aim of offering a global and enriching vision on this matter.
| Opinion polling for UK general elections |
|---|
| 2015 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2017 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2019 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| 2024 election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
| Next election |
| Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.
The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.
Graphical summary
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
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National poll results
Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.
2024
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–7 Oct | More in Common | Politico | GB | 2,023 | 29% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 5%
SNP on 2% Other on 3% |
1 |
| 2–4 Oct | Opinium | N/A | GB | 1,491 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 5%
SNP on 3% Other on 2% |
7 |
| 2–3 Oct | BMG Research | N/A | GB | 1,562 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 4%
SNP on 3% Other on 1% |
5 |
| 2–3 Oct | Techne | N/A | GB | 1,643 | 31% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
8 |
| 25–26 Sep | Techne | N/A | GB | 1,638 | 32% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
10 |
| 24–25 Sep | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,080 | 30% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 6% |
4 |
| 18–19 Sep | Techne | The Independent | GB | 1,641 | 33% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
12 |
| 10–12 Sep | More in Common | Politico | GB | 1,542 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
4 |
| 29 Aug | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,560 | 30% | 26% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 6% |
4 |
| 7–8 Aug | We Think | N/A | GB | 1,278 | 33% | 20% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 8% |
12 |
| 5–7 Aug | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,523 | 33% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 9 |
| 30 Jul – 5 Aug | Stonehaven | N/A | GB | 2,048 | 34% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 12 |
| 25–26 Jul | We Think | N/A | GB | 2,012 | 36% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 7% |
14 |
| 11–12 Jul | We Think | N/A | GB | 2,005 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 19 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | – | 33.7% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.0 |
| GB | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 10.3 |
Sub-national poll results
Northern Ireland
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Sinn Féin | DUP | Alliance | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[1] | – | 27.0% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9 | |
Scotland
| Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | SNP | Con. | LD | Ref. | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–13 Sep 2024 | Survation | Progress Scotland | 2,059 | 31% | 31% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 1% | Tie |
| 5–11 Sep 2024 | Opinium | The Sunday Times | 1,028 | 25% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 7 |
| 20–22 Aug 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,011 | 32% | 29% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | 35.3% | 30.0% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 5.3 | |
Wales
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab. | Con. | Ref. | Plaid Cymru | LD | Green | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[2] | – | 37.0% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 18.8 | |
Leadership approval polling
Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
| 4–6 Oct 2024 | YouGov | 2,121 | 27% | 63% | –36 | 24% | 66% | –42 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 25% | 32% | –7 | – | – | ||||
| 25–27 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,003 | 23% | 53% | –30 | 20% | 46% | –26 | 29% | 40% | –11 | 22% | 23% | –1 | – | – | ||||
| 24–25 Sep 2024 | More In Common | 2,080 | 21% | 48% | –27 | 17% | 52% | –35 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
| 20–22 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 2,137 | 30% | 60% | –30 | 24% | 68% | –44 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 27% | 36% | –9 | – | – | ||||
| 18–20 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,050 | 24% | 50% | –26 | 21% | 46% | –25 | 27% | 39% | –12 | 24% | 21% | +3 | – | – | ||||
| 9 Sep 2024 | More In Common | 2,024 | 25% | 45% | –20 | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||
| 29 Aug 2024 | BMG Research | 1,560 | 28% | 44% | –16 | 22% | 46% | –24 | 28% | 37% | –9 | 19% | 21% | –2 | – | – | ||||
| 24–27 Aug 2024 | More In Common | 2,015 | 27% | 43% | –16 | 17% | 58% | –41 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
| 14–16 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,000 | 32% | 38% | –6 | 20% | 50% | –30 | 24% | 43% | –19 | 21% | 21% | - | – | – | ||||
| 7–8 Aug 2024 | We Think | 1,278 | 33% | 42% | –9 | 22% | 57% | –35 | 29% | 44% | –15 | 18% | 36% | –18 | 14% | 28% | –14 | 10% | 26% | –16 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | BMG Research | 1,523 | 30% | 33% | –3 | 19% | 42% | –23 | 23% | 37% | –14 | 21% | 16% | +5 | – | – | ||||
| 5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 37% | 53% | –16 | 23% | 71% | –48 | 25% | 67% | –42 | – | – | – | ||||||
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 35% | 32% | +3 | 18% | 48% | –30 | 25% | 40% | –15 | 24% | 19% | +5 | 19% | 17% | +2 | 19% | 17% | +2 |
| 30–31 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,233 | 40% | 49% | –9 | 23% | 70% | –47 | 27% | 62% | –35 | 27% | 33% | –6 | 9% | 12% | –3 | 3% | 10% | –7 |
| 25–26 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,012 | 42% | 37% | +5 | 25% | 61% | –36 | 30% | 50% | –20 | 21% | 36% | –15 | 16% | 34% | –18 | 12% | 32% | –20 |
| 17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 38% | 20% | +18 | 20% | 42% | –22 | – | 25% | 18% | +7 | 21% | 15% | +6 | 21% | 15% | +6 | ||
| 8–14 Jul 2024 | Morning Consult | – | 45% | 25% | +20 | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||
| 11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 38% | 15% | +23 | 21% | 31% | –10 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
| 5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov[3] | 2,102 | 44% | 47% | –3 | 23% | 70% | –47 | 27% | 65% | –38 | 34% | 29% | +5 | 13% | 16% | –3 | 7% | 14% | –7 |
| 5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos[4] | 1,141 | 40% | 33% | +7 | 21% | 57% | –36 | 26% | 52% | –26 | 29% | 26% | +3 | – | – | ||||
Party approval polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
| 20–22 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 2,132 | 32% | 59% | –27 | 24% | 67% | –43 | 26% | 62% | –36 | 37% | 45% | –8 | 40% | 42% | –2 |
| 24–27 Aug 2024 | More In Common | 2,015 | 25% | 45% | –20 | 15% | 57% | –42 | – | – | – | ||||||
| 5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 39% | 53% | –14 | 23% | 70% | –47 | – | – | – | ||||||
| 5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov[3] | 2,102 | 47% | 46% | +1 | 21% | 72% | –51 | 28% | 62% | –34 | 45% | 37% | +8 | 46% | 38% | +8 |
| 5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos[4] | 1,141 | 40% | 34% | +6 | 20% | 59% | –39 | 25% | 51% | –26 | 29% | 28% | +1 | 33% | 28% | +6 |
Preferred prime minister polling
Some opinion pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister:
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | None | Don't know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25–27 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,049 | 27% | 18% | – | – | – | – | 46% | 10% | 9 |
| 18–20 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,050 | 28% | 18% | – | – | – | – | 44% | 10% | 10 |
| 28–30 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,040 | 34% | 15% | – | – | – | – | 40% | 11% | 19 |
| 14–16 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 1,996 | 36% | 16% | – | – | – | – | 37% | 12% | 20 |
| 7–8 Aug 2024 | We Think | 1,278 | 26% | 10% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 20% | 15% | 6 |
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 38% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 37% | 11% | 24 |
| 25–26 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,012 | 30% | 11% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 15% | 12 |
| 17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 37% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 34% | 15% | 23 |
| 11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 30% | 11% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 33% | 16 | |
See also
- Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
- Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Senedd election
References
- ^ "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ a b Smith, Matthew (9 July 2024). "Keir Starmer favourability rises 8pts following election victory". YouGov UK.
- ^ a b "5th – 6th July 2024: PUBLIC: Political Pulse: Campaign Tracker Week 7: Post election: Adults aged 18+ in GB" (PDF). Ipsos.